Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: South region

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  • Postado em 27 de agosto, 2019


    Best seed outlook: Could No. 1 Virginia exorcise the past year’s demons now that the group is at full strength? Our version believes so. The Cavaliers have a 49 percent likelihood of cracking the Final Four and a 31 percent likelihood of accomplishing what would be the program’s first national title game.
    Together with De’Andre Hunter, that wasn’t on the court this past year through UVA’s historic loss to No. 16 Maryland Baltimore County, the Cavaliers have been dominant on both ends — the sole team standing in the top five at Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. Once more, Tony Bennett’s package line shield is suffocating most every offensive chance and successfully turning games into stone fights. However, this year’s group is better on the offensive end and ought to breeze to the Elite Eight, where it could meet Tennessee. Due to Grant Williams and the wonderfully named Admiral Schofield, the No. 2 Volunteers are playing their best basketball in history. We provide them a 22 percent likelihood of reaching the Final Four.
    Sneaky Final Four select: No. 6 Villanova. Is it”sneaky” to select the team that’s won just two of the past three national titles? Maybe not. But this has not been the same team that coach Jay Wright advised to those championships. After dropping a ton of its best players from last year’s title-winning team, the Wildcats had an up-and-down season and dropped five of their final eight regular-season Big East games. However they also got hot over the last week, capping off a year in which they still won the Big East regular-season and conference-tournament names — and had among the 20 greatest offenses in the nation based on KenPom (powered by an absurd number of 3-pointers). Our power ratings think they’re the fourth-best team in the South despite being the No. 6 seed, and they have a 5 percent chance of earning it back into the Final Four for a third time in four seasons.
    Do not bet : No. 4 Kansas State. Coach Bruce Weber’s Wildcats nearly made the Final Four last season, but they might find it harder this time around. K-State has an elite defense (it ranks fourth in the nation according to Pomeroy’s evaluations ), but its crime is prone to battles — and could be down its second-leading scorer, forward Dean Wade, who missed the team’s Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State with a foot injury. A brutal draw that provides the Wildcats tough No. 13 seed UC Irvine in the first round, then places them opposite the Wisconsin-Oregon winner at Round two, could limit their potential to progress deep into another consecutive tournament.
    Cinderella see: No. 12 Oregon. In accordance with our model, the Ducks have the very best Sweet 16 odds (24 percent) of almost any double-digit seed at the championship, more than double that of any other candidate. Oregon struggled to string together wins for the majority of the regular season, and its own odds seemed sunk after 7-foot-2 phenom Bol Bol was missing for the year with a foot injury in January. However, the Ducks have rallied to win eight straight games going into the championship, such as a convincing victory in Saturday’s Pac-12 championship. Oregon fits a similar mould as K-State — excellent defense with a suspect crime — but that’s telling, since the Ducks are a 12-seed and the Wildcats are a No. 4. Should they fulfill in the Round of 32, we provide Oregon a 47 percent chance at the upset.
    Player to watch: Grant Williams, Tennessee
    The junior has come a long way from being”a fat boy with some ability.” Williams, the de facto leader of Rick Barnes’s Volunteers, has bullied the SEC over the previous two seasons, collecting two consecutive conference player of the year honors.
    The Vols might just feature the very best crime of Barnes’s coaching career — and we’re talking about a guy who coached Kevin Durant! Much of the offensive potency can be tracked to Williams, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, who ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring efficacy, based on information courtesy of Synergy Sports.
    Williams owns an old-man match you might find at a regional YMCA, a back-to-the-basket, footwork-proficient offensive assault that manifests primarily in post-ups, where he positions in the 98th percentile in scoring efficiency and shoots a adjusted field-goal proportion of 56.1. He can find the Volunteers buckets from the waning minutes of matches, too, as he ranks from the 96th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency.
    Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Ole Miss (53 percent); No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin (45 percent); No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (34 percent)
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