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Postado em 5 de agosto, 2019
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it a week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will likely take a couple shots in the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I will take that free square foot and move on. He should dominate this battle and he can finish it on the toes or the ground. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying 9.6k for that. When I am making lineups, I want to try to get at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points from him. That is the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I did not think Jones would find a finish then perhaps he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not need that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round fight, and that I do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get from Jon Jones because he will be quite highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill half the area since that wouldn’t be enough points to place him that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be out of his wrestling. He is among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting an opportunity in the UFC after dominating every organization he’s been in. He won’t want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to shoot takedowns right away and chain wrestle till he receives them. When he gets top control there isn’t going to be a lot Robbie can perform on the ground and he should take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he is able to come up with the success.
Underdog play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of old, but I believe he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume alone from Sanchez should acquire it for him there so long as he does not get knocked out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most these days, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and I really don’t see him getting knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez are the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A entry the best chance at a win of Gall and Sanchez hasn’t been submitted. We must have underdogs in our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego allows us to cover up for those men like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he can grind out a determination win here I presume he can get 10x that wages and if we can find a win against him in that inexpensive salary, then I think we will be in line for that $50k win when we hit our other five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the guy I need the least of. I attempt to acquire a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Instead, I am going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I believe that a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and he actually doesn’t have the one punch/kick power that it would take to pull off. I would be shocked if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I was making 20 or less lineups, he would be an easy fade.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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